The aftershocks of crime

　　犯罪余震

　　An idea borrowed from seismology may help topredict criminal activity.

　　從地震學(xué)上獲取的靈感或許能預(yù)測(cè)犯罪行為。

　　LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America.

　　洛杉磯是美國(guó)警力最不足的城市之一，

　　With a mere 26 officers for every 10,000 residents, the Los Angeles Police Department needsall the help it can get.

　　每一萬(wàn)個(gè)市民只分配了26名警察，因此洛杉磯警局急需各方支援。

　　That help may be at hand, with a modification of technology used to predict another typeof threat that the city is prone to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes areunpredictable.

　　支援也許就近在咫尺，只要將一項(xiàng)技術(shù)修改一下便可。這項(xiàng)技術(shù)原本是用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)余震的這個(gè)城市很容易受到的另一種災(zāi)難。

　　Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors, and thepattern of these is tractable.

　　大地震是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的，但是大地震發(fā)生后隨之而來(lái)的余震模式卻是可以掌控的。

　　George Mohler, a mathematician at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks somethingsimilar is true of crimes.

　　加利福尼亞州的圣克拉拉大學(xué)的數(shù)學(xué)家喬治默赫勒認(rèn)為，余震和犯罪有著相似之處。

　　There is often a pattern ofaftercrimes in the wake of an initial one.

　　在初始犯罪后，常會(huì)尾隨一種犯罪后效應(yīng)模式。

　　The similarity with earthquakes intrigued him and he wondered if the mathematicalformulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes,too.

　　這種和地震的相似性激起了他的興趣，于是他想，如果地震學(xué)家應(yīng)用的預(yù)測(cè)余震的數(shù)學(xué)公式應(yīng)用到犯罪后效應(yīng)中，又會(huì)如何呢?

　　To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles,adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood ofaftershocks.

　　為了測(cè)試這一想法，他和一隊(duì)來(lái)自加利福尼亞大學(xué)的研究人員采用了一套地震學(xué)家用來(lái)計(jì)算余震可能性的電腦程序，

　　They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential burglaries that occurred in an18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the citys largest districts, during2004.

　　輸入了2004年，在圣費(fèi)爾南多谷中面積為1818km2的區(qū)域里發(fā)生的2803起住宅爆竊案的警方數(shù)據(jù)。

　　Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely toexperience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homeswithin the area were at particular risk of being broken into.

　　通過(guò)地震學(xué)的運(yùn)算法則，電腦計(jì)算出了哪些街區(qū)在第二天可能會(huì)遭到大批盜竊，因此區(qū)域內(nèi)5%的住宅都冒有很大被盜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　In one test the program accurately identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, hadit been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries thattook place in the whole area that day.

　　在一項(xiàng)測(cè)試中，這個(gè)程序精確地辨識(shí)出了該市的一塊高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)，而如果巡邏充足，警方本可以在那一天阻止該地區(qū)四分之一的盜竊案。

　　In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries in Los Angeles,using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gangviolence as retaliations typically occur within daysand metresof an initial attack.

　　除了用盜竊案做模型，默赫勒用1999到2002年的數(shù)據(jù)，也檢測(cè)了三起洛杉磯的幫派斗爭(zhēng)，并發(fā)現(xiàn)了相同的模式：在最初的襲擊之后，幾天內(nèi)會(huì)在鄰近區(qū)域很典型地發(fā)生復(fù)仇暴力。

　　That, too, should help police deploy their limited resources more effectively.

　　這也能幫助警方更有效地部署有限的資源。

　　RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.

　　機(jī)器戰(zhàn)警已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)，現(xiàn)在是電腦戰(zhàn)警的時(shí)代了。

　　詞語(yǔ)解釋

　　1.predict v.預(yù)言;預(yù)報(bào)

　　It is virtually impossible to predict the futureaccurately.

　　精確預(yù)言未來(lái)的事實(shí)際上是辦不到的。

　　2.technology n.技術(shù);工藝

　　The government saw the introduction of newtechnology as vital.

　　政府認(rèn)為引進(jìn)新技術(shù)至關(guān)重要。

　　3.initial a.開(kāi)始的;最初的

　　This is a letter paper personalized with his initials.

　　這是一張有他姓名首字母的信紙。

　　4.occur v.發(fā)生;存在

　　That plane crash occurred only minutes after take-off.

　　空難在起飛幾分鐘后就發(fā)生了。

　　5.calculate v.計(jì)算;估計(jì)

　　I will calculate your bill for you.

　　我?guī)湍?jì)算賬單。

　　The aftershocks of crime

　　犯罪余震

　　An idea borrowed from seismology may help topredict criminal activity.

　　從地震學(xué)上獲取的靈感或許能預(yù)測(cè)犯罪行為。

　　LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America.

　　洛杉磯是美國(guó)警力最不足的城市之一，

　　With a mere 26 officers for every 10,000 residents, the Los Angeles Police Department needsall the help it can get.

　　每一萬(wàn)個(gè)市民只分配了26名警察，因此洛杉磯警局急需各方支援。

　　That help may be at hand, with a modification of technology used to predict another typeof threat that the city is prone to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes areunpredictable.

　　支援也許就近在咫尺，只要將一項(xiàng)技術(shù)修改一下便可。這項(xiàng)技術(shù)原本是用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)余震的這個(gè)城市很容易受到的另一種災(zāi)難。

　　Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors, and thepattern of these is tractable.

　　大地震是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的，但是大地震發(fā)生后隨之而來(lái)的余震模式卻是可以掌控的。

　　George Mohler, a mathematician at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks somethingsimilar is true of crimes.

　　加利福尼亞州的圣克拉拉大學(xué)的數(shù)學(xué)家喬治默赫勒認(rèn)為，余震和犯罪有著相似之處。

　　There is often a pattern ofaftercrimes in the wake of an initial one.

　　在初始犯罪后，常會(huì)尾隨一種犯罪后效應(yīng)模式。

　　The similarity with earthquakes intrigued him and he wondered if the mathematicalformulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes,too.

　　這種和地震的相似性激起了他的興趣，于是他想，如果地震學(xué)家應(yīng)用的預(yù)測(cè)余震的數(shù)學(xué)公式應(yīng)用到犯罪后效應(yīng)中，又會(huì)如何呢?

　　To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles,adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood ofaftershocks.

　　為了測(cè)試這一想法，他和一隊(duì)來(lái)自加利福尼亞大學(xué)的研究人員采用了一套地震學(xué)家用來(lái)計(jì)算余震可能性的電腦程序，

　　They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential burglaries that occurred in an18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the citys largest districts, during2004.

　　輸入了2004年，在圣費(fèi)爾南多谷中面積為1818km2的區(qū)域里發(fā)生的2803起住宅爆竊案的警方數(shù)據(jù)。

　　Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely toexperience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homeswithin the area were at particular risk of being broken into.

　　通過(guò)地震學(xué)的運(yùn)算法則，電腦計(jì)算出了哪些街區(qū)在第二天可能會(huì)遭到大批盜竊，因此區(qū)域內(nèi)5%的住宅都冒有很大被盜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　In one test the program accurately identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, hadit been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries thattook place in the whole area that day.

　　在一項(xiàng)測(cè)試中，這個(gè)程序精確地辨識(shí)出了該市的一塊高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)，而如果巡邏充足，警方本可以在那一天阻止該地區(qū)四分之一的盜竊案。

　　In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries in Los Angeles,using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gangviolence as retaliations typically occur within daysand metresof an initial attack.

　　除了用盜竊案做模型，默赫勒用1999到2002年的數(shù)據(jù)，也檢測(cè)了三起洛杉磯的幫派斗爭(zhēng)，并發(fā)現(xiàn)了相同的模式：在最初的襲擊之后，幾天內(nèi)會(huì)在鄰近區(qū)域很典型地發(fā)生復(fù)仇暴力。

　　That, too, should help police deploy their limited resources more effectively.

　　這也能幫助警方更有效地部署有限的資源。

　　RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.

　　機(jī)器戰(zhàn)警已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)，現(xiàn)在是電腦戰(zhàn)警的時(shí)代了。

　　詞語(yǔ)解釋

　　1.predict v.預(yù)言;預(yù)報(bào)

　　It is virtually impossible to predict the futureaccurately.

　　精確預(yù)言未來(lái)的事實(shí)際上是辦不到的。

　　2.technology n.技術(shù);工藝

　　The government saw the introduction of newtechnology as vital.

　　政府認(rèn)為引進(jìn)新技術(shù)至關(guān)重要。

　　3.initial a.開(kāi)始的;最初的

　　This is a letter paper personalized with his initials.

　　這是一張有他姓名首字母的信紙。

　　4.occur v.發(fā)生;存在

　　That plane crash occurred only minutes after take-off.

　　空難在起飛幾分鐘后就發(fā)生了。

　　5.calculate v.計(jì)算;估計(jì)

　　I will calculate your bill for you.

　　我?guī)湍?jì)算賬單。