Two events — one that has just happened and one that may be imminent — are swelling the ranks of investors willing to bet that a great environmental rehabilitation in smog-choked China will become a stock market megatrend.

兩起事件——其中一起剛剛發生，另一起可能很快就會發生——正在推動投資者作出這樣一個押注：深受霧霾困擾的中國為整治環境而付出的巨大努力，將成為股市的一個大趨勢。

First came last week’s decision by Donald Trump to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord, ceding leadership over the global green agenda to China and Europe. Then there is the prospect of MSCI, the index provider, deciding this month to include some Chinese A shares into one of its benchmarks for the first time.

前一起事件是唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上周決定把美國撤出巴黎氣候協定，從而把全球綠色議程的領導權拱手讓給中國和歐洲。后一起事件是指數提供商MSCI明晟有望在本月決定將一些中國A股首次納入旗下一個基準。

“What the Chinese dream about is blue sky and blue water,” says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market asset manager. “Investment into the global leaders in environmental protection is very exciting.”

“中國人的夢想是藍天碧水，”新興市場資產管理公司East Capital的合伙人習卡琳(Karine Hirn)表示。“投資于環保領域的全球領軍者非常激動人心。”

Environmental degradation in China — the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases — has created an unstoppable “green” momentum, galvanised by social pressure and reinforced by Beijing’s regulatory will.

身為全球最大的溫室氣體排放國，中國的環境退化已經催生了一股不可阻擋的“綠色”勢頭，既受到社會壓力的強大推動，又被北京方面的監管意志強化。

This means there is no chance that Beijing will follow the US and back out of the 2024 Paris agreement to combat climate change, says Wang Yao, director-general of the International Institute of Green Finance in Beijing.

北京綠色金融國際研究院(International Institute of Green Finance)院長王遙表示，這意味著北京方面不可能追隨美國，退出旨在對抗氣候變化的2024年巴黎協定。

Mr Trump’s move “makes China into a leader”, she adds in an interview. “But really we are just doing what we must do for our own domestic reasons. We face a very serious environmental challenge so we must continue with green development.”

她補充說，特朗普此舉“把中國造就成一個領導者”。“但其實，我們只是出于我們自己的國內原因而做一些我們必須做的事情。我們面對一場嚴峻的環境挑戰，所以我們必須堅持綠色發展。”

This imperative has accelerated an avalanche of investment in clean technologies, green transportation and renewable energy in the past few years. China has more than a third of the world’s wind power capacity; a quarter of its solar power; six of the top 10 solar-panel makers; and four of the top 10 wind turbine makers. It recorded more battery-only electric car sales last year than the rest of the world combined.

這一迫切需要已經在過去幾年加快了對清潔技術、綠色交通和可再生能源的大舉投資。中國擁有世界三分之一以上的風電裝機容量、四分之一的太陽能發電能力、排名前10的太陽能電池板制造商中的6家，以及排名前10的風力發電機制造商中的4家。去年，中國的電動汽車銷量高于世界其他地方的總和。

Ms Hirn estimates that a sum roughly equivalent to the GDP of Denmark is invested in Chinese clean tech each year, while the total market capitalisation of about 350 listed green Chinese companies is about $600bn. But although these are big numbers, she says, China will need far greater investment if it hopes to rehabilitate its contaminated air, land and water.

習卡琳估計，中國清潔技術領域每年得到的投資總額，與丹麥的國內生產總值(GDP)相仿；大約350家中國上市綠色企業的總市值約為6000億美元。但她表示，盡管這些是巨大的數字，但中國將需要多得多的投資，才有希望恢復已經受到污染的空氣、土壤和水體。

John Lin, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, is also animated by the green theme. Opportunities have come in industries where small polluting factories have been shut en masse, boosting profit margins for larger environmentally friendly group, he says.

聯博(AllianceBernstein)投資組合經理林樺堂(John Lin)也對綠色主題感到振奮。他說，在污染嚴重的小廠大量關閉的行業，機遇已經到來，因為這提升了對環境友好的較大企業的利潤率。

In paper production, shares in Nine Dragons Paper and Shandong Chenming Paper have impressed, while there have been beneficiaries in steel, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, Mr Lin says.

林樺堂表示，在造紙行業，玖龍紙業(Nine Dragons Paper)和山東晨鳴紙業(Shandong Chenming Paper)近期股票表現令人印象深刻，同時鋼鐵、有色金屬和化工等行業也都涌現了受益者。

Ms Hirn favours the clean transportation theme, particularly companies involved in new energy vehicle technology. Opportunities beckon in waste management and air pollution control as local governments answer exhortations from Beijing to clean up their cities, she adds.

習卡琳對清潔運輸主題情有獨鐘，尤其是涉及新能源汽車技術的公司。她補充說，隨著地方政府響應北京方面對于整治城市環境的號召，廢棄物管理和空氣污染控制領域的機遇也在應運而生。

Many companies that stand to gain from the green agenda are listed on the $7tn domestic A-share market, which remains exotic for many overseas funds. However, this could change on June 20.

有望獲益于綠色議程的許多公司在7萬億美元的國內A股市場上市，該市場對海外的眾多基金而言仍是奇異的。但是，這種情況可能會在6月20日發生變化。

If MSCI decides to include A shares in its emerging markets index, passive managers will be obliged to take on exposure for the first time, while active managers seek the best Chinese stocks, says Caroline Owen, chief executive, of RMB Global Advisors in New York. “We are on the verge of one of the greatest rebalancings in global portfolios in recent years,” she says.

紐約RMB Global Advisors首席執行官卡羅琳?歐文(Caroline Owen)表示，如果MSCI明晟決定將A股納入其新興市場指數，被動基金管理公司不得不首次建立A股敞口，而主動型投資管理機構將尋覓最優秀的中國股票。“我們正站在近年來規模最大的全球投資組合再平衡之一的門檻上。”

MSCI delayed inclusion for a third straight year last June, citing regulatory worries and the need for greater accessibility for global investors. This year it has reduced the number of A shares slated for inclusion from 448 to 169, in a move that was intended to make inclusion more palatable to global asset managers.

MSCI在去年6月連續第三年推遲納入A股，理由包括監管擔憂和全球投資者需要更暢通的投資渠道。今年，這家指數提供商把考慮納入的A股數量從448只減少至169只，此舉旨在使全球資產管理者更愿意接受中國A股。

However, it is possible that yet again the decision will be negative. “I heard there were some technical issues that may make it tough to include A shares this year,” says a fund manager who declined to be identified.

然而，MSCI也有可能再次作出否定的決定。“我聽說有一些技術問題可能使今年納入A股有難度，”一名拒絕公開身份的基金經理表示。

Two events — one that has just happened and one that may be imminent — are swelling the ranks of investors willing to bet that a great environmental rehabilitation in smog-choked China will become a stock market megatrend.

兩起事件——其中一起剛剛發生，另一起可能很快就會發生——正在推動投資者作出這樣一個押注：深受霧霾困擾的中國為整治環境而付出的巨大努力，將成為股市的一個大趨勢。

First came last week’s decision by Donald Trump to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord, ceding leadership over the global green agenda to China and Europe. Then there is the prospect of MSCI, the index provider, deciding this month to include some Chinese A shares into one of its benchmarks for the first time.

前一起事件是唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上周決定把美國撤出巴黎氣候協定，從而把全球綠色議程的領導權拱手讓給中國和歐洲。后一起事件是指數提供商MSCI明晟有望在本月決定將一些中國A股首次納入旗下一個基準。

“What the Chinese dream about is blue sky and blue water,” says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market asset manager. “Investment into the global leaders in environmental protection is very exciting.”

“中國人的夢想是藍天碧水，”新興市場資產管理公司East Capital的合伙人習卡琳(Karine Hirn)表示。“投資于環保領域的全球領軍者非常激動人心。”

Environmental degradation in China — the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases — has created an unstoppable “green” momentum, galvanised by social pressure and reinforced by Beijing’s regulatory will.

身為全球最大的溫室氣體排放國，中國的環境退化已經催生了一股不可阻擋的“綠色”勢頭，既受到社會壓力的強大推動，又被北京方面的監管意志強化。

This means there is no chance that Beijing will follow the US and back out of the 2024 Paris agreement to combat climate change, says Wang Yao, director-general of the International Institute of Green Finance in Beijing.

北京綠色金融國際研究院(International Institute of Green Finance)院長王遙表示，這意味著北京方面不可能追隨美國，退出旨在對抗氣候變化的2024年巴黎協定。

Mr Trump’s move “makes China into a leader”, she adds in an interview. “But really we are just doing what we must do for our own domestic reasons. We face a very serious environmental challenge so we must continue with green development.”

她補充說，特朗普此舉“把中國造就成一個領導者”。“但其實，我們只是出于我們自己的國內原因而做一些我們必須做的事情。我們面對一場嚴峻的環境挑戰，所以我們必須堅持綠色發展。”

This imperative has accelerated an avalanche of investment in clean technologies, green transportation and renewable energy in the past few years. China has more than a third of the world’s wind power capacity; a quarter of its solar power; six of the top 10 solar-panel makers; and four of the top 10 wind turbine makers. It recorded more battery-only electric car sales last year than the rest of the world combined.

這一迫切需要已經在過去幾年加快了對清潔技術、綠色交通和可再生能源的大舉投資。中國擁有世界三分之一以上的風電裝機容量、四分之一的太陽能發電能力、排名前10的太陽能電池板制造商中的6家，以及排名前10的風力發電機制造商中的4家。去年，中國的電動汽車銷量高于世界其他地方的總和。

Ms Hirn estimates that a sum roughly equivalent to the GDP of Denmark is invested in Chinese clean tech each year, while the total market capitalisation of about 350 listed green Chinese companies is about $600bn. But although these are big numbers, she says, China will need far greater investment if it hopes to rehabilitate its contaminated air, land and water.

習卡琳估計，中國清潔技術領域每年得到的投資總額，與丹麥的國內生產總值(GDP)相仿；大約350家中國上市綠色企業的總市值約為6000億美元。但她表示，盡管這些是巨大的數字，但中國將需要多得多的投資，才有希望恢復已經受到污染的空氣、土壤和水體。

John Lin, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, is also animated by the green theme. Opportunities have come in industries where small polluting factories have been shut en masse, boosting profit margins for larger environmentally friendly group, he says.

聯博(AllianceBernstein)投資組合經理林樺堂(John Lin)也對綠色主題感到振奮。他說，在污染嚴重的小廠大量關閉的行業，機遇已經到來，因為這提升了對環境友好的較大企業的利潤率。

In paper production, shares in Nine Dragons Paper and Shandong Chenming Paper have impressed, while there have been beneficiaries in steel, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, Mr Lin says.

林樺堂表示，在造紙行業，玖龍紙業(Nine Dragons Paper)和山東晨鳴紙業(Shandong Chenming Paper)近期股票表現令人印象深刻，同時鋼鐵、有色金屬和化工等行業也都涌現了受益者。

Ms Hirn favours the clean transportation theme, particularly companies involved in new energy vehicle technology. Opportunities beckon in waste management and air pollution control as local governments answer exhortations from Beijing to clean up their cities, she adds.

習卡琳對清潔運輸主題情有獨鐘，尤其是涉及新能源汽車技術的公司。她補充說，隨著地方政府響應北京方面對于整治城市環境的號召，廢棄物管理和空氣污染控制領域的機遇也在應運而生。

Many companies that stand to gain from the green agenda are listed on the $7tn domestic A-share market, which remains exotic for many overseas funds. However, this could change on June 20.

有望獲益于綠色議程的許多公司在7萬億美元的國內A股市場上市，該市場對海外的眾多基金而言仍是奇異的。但是，這種情況可能會在6月20日發生變化。

If MSCI decides to include A shares in its emerging markets index, passive managers will be obliged to take on exposure for the first time, while active managers seek the best Chinese stocks, says Caroline Owen, chief executive, of RMB Global Advisors in New York. “We are on the verge of one of the greatest rebalancings in global portfolios in recent years,” she says.

紐約RMB Global Advisors首席執行官卡羅琳?歐文(Caroline Owen)表示，如果MSCI明晟決定將A股納入其新興市場指數，被動基金管理公司不得不首次建立A股敞口，而主動型投資管理機構將尋覓最優秀的中國股票。“我們正站在近年來規模最大的全球投資組合再平衡之一的門檻上。”

MSCI delayed inclusion for a third straight year last June, citing regulatory worries and the need for greater accessibility for global investors. This year it has reduced the number of A shares slated for inclusion from 448 to 169, in a move that was intended to make inclusion more palatable to global asset managers.

MSCI在去年6月連續第三年推遲納入A股，理由包括監管擔憂和全球投資者需要更暢通的投資渠道。今年，這家指數提供商把考慮納入的A股數量從448只減少至169只，此舉旨在使全球資產管理者更愿意接受中國A股。

However, it is possible that yet again the decision will be negative. “I heard there were some technical issues that may make it tough to include A shares this year,” says a fund manager who declined to be identified.

然而，MSCI也有可能再次作出否定的決定。“我聽說有一些技術問題可能使今年納入A股有難度，”一名拒絕公開身份的基金經理表示。